The Stock Market Is Doing Something It Has Done Only 2 Times Since 1985, and History Is Clear About What Happens Next

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is widely regarded as the best gauge for the entire U.S. stock market. The index has returned 27% year to date in one of its strongest performances of the 21st century. But warning signs are starting to appear.

In November, a Conference Board survey found that 56.4% of U.S. consumers expect the stock market to rise over the next year, the highest reading on record. That may sound like good news, but Morgan Stanley sees it as a contrarian indicator signaling irrational optimism at a time when valuations are stretched. READ MORE